We’re going to start at Stratford for today’s racing.
14:50 There’s plenty here with chances on bits of form, but a lot of the runners are a bit in and out with little consistency. The RP is napping Go West (currently 3/1) and I’m really struggling to see why. Given the support in the RP it could well shorten in price and I would go for a Lay. From a positive perspective I like Wenger at 15/2 and with one more runner in the race I would be sweet on a Place or E/W bet, but a small speculative Win bet is probably the best option.
15:50 Although Nawow’s last race looks slightly disappointing on paper, it was a much harder race than this and it stands every chance on its previous run. It looks as though the trainer has found a perfect opportunity to get it back on the winning trail. Although the early-morning 13/8 is a bit on the short side it does represent good value. Its main market rivals are a horse that managed to fall twice on its only Chase start No Supper (interestingly put straight into a handicap for its first attempt at the bigger obstacles – and if it had been better supported in the market for that race I would have some concerns, but it went off at 16/1), and Kinkeel, which by my reckoning is being too highly tried even against some modest animals.
Moving on to Newcastle we have the following:
14:30 A truly horrible race. On paper it looks like a match between Command Marshal and Gobejolly. The latter is at 9/4 based almost on speculation that its new trainer is going to work a miracle (in my book that’s what’s needed on form reading. Lay Gobejolly to small stakes.
15:00 A case can be made for the front three in the betting 2/1 – 11/4 – 100/30 (11/1 Bar). I’m (slightly) surprised to see Jballingall as favourite, which seems to be based on its last run, which was a non-handicap. My slight preference is for Seek The Truth at 100/30, but I will go for the Lay on Jballingall.
16:00 They say that all good things come to those who wait, and it may be true in this race. Chapel Flowers is currently 8/15 based on its wide-margin success in its last race. While there’s no denying that was an impressive victory, the level of opposition was (let’s be kind) less than this. On pure race ‘class’ I have this race around a stone better than Chapel Flowers’ last. It is sometimes hard to get a real feel for a horse’s ability and certainly 32 lengths is a good winning margin. However, I really can’t get over the short price and have to go for the Lay on Chapel Flowers. If Chapel Flowers is as good as the market says then the cautious among you might want to try a little E/W or Place saver on Toulouse Express who in my book has been given a reasonable opportunity to get back to winning ways.
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