We Said that Jump Jet could be the steal of the week at 10/1, it wasn't a bad bet at the 6/1 it won at. I love it when a plan comes together.
Not that this was the sole success of the day. We had two Lay bets, both of which lost at 4/1 (both shorter in the early morning).
Our speculative Back bets failed (but at the prices we go for with these we can wait), although I have to admit to being a bit disappointed with Thehonourablelady (backed into 8/1 from 12/1) it seemed to be travelling quite well until three out when it had nothing. Perhaps a race short of fitness, and one I would definitely consider next time out.
Just as a wrap up for today, the only losing Lay bet we've had all week was at 8/15 and we've had some nice Back bets come in, so well ahead of the game.
Saturday, 31 October 2009
Friday, 30 October 2009
Reasons for the Blog - Extending the Introduction
Why am I doing this? Putting up tips could be considered an ego trip (but that could be said of the whole Blogging thing), but that only works if I show everyone what a genius I am. When the losing bets come (as they surely will), then my ego takes a knock. So is there another reason for this Blog?
Yes (I’m beginning to think I might be schizophrenic, talking to myself).
I’ve been following horse racing for more years than I care to remember. My first bet was Anglo in the Grand National 6d (that’s six old pence) E/W at 50/1, but I remember listening to E.S.B. win the 1956 National (I was 5 years old).
In the intervening 50+ years I’ve gone through all the usual moments of joy and pain that comes with backing horses.
Highlights, include watching Secreto hold on in a desperate finish to win the 1984 Derby (I’d taken 20/1). Having a double on Sea Pigeon to win the Champion Hurdle at 7/4 with Fogbound at 20/1 at (I think) Sedgefield (but I might be wrong there). Taking £800 of the bookmakers at one Doncaster meeting (on a works outing), with winners at 100/1, 13/2, 8/1, and 9/4 – Frankie Durr rode the first winner, Hittite Glory, beating Music Boy (which was heavily odds-on) in the Flying Childers, and Lester won the last with one of his classy finishes.
Downsides. Listening to and believing all the crap merchants. Spending unknown amounts of money (like all gamblers I remember winners but not losers) on stupid systems. Believing complete strangers rather than using my own judgement. Thinking that there is a secret key to unlocking how a horse might run.
Which brings me to the real reason for this Blog. There is a way of making money at this game. I’m not saying I have discovered the secret, but I have learned enough to be reasonably successful. It boils down to three main factors. Select races with horses that have exposed form. Think what a trainer has to achieve to keep the owners happy. Accept losses and don’t panic.
Yes (I’m beginning to think I might be schizophrenic, talking to myself).
I’ve been following horse racing for more years than I care to remember. My first bet was Anglo in the Grand National 6d (that’s six old pence) E/W at 50/1, but I remember listening to E.S.B. win the 1956 National (I was 5 years old).
In the intervening 50+ years I’ve gone through all the usual moments of joy and pain that comes with backing horses.
Highlights, include watching Secreto hold on in a desperate finish to win the 1984 Derby (I’d taken 20/1). Having a double on Sea Pigeon to win the Champion Hurdle at 7/4 with Fogbound at 20/1 at (I think) Sedgefield (but I might be wrong there). Taking £800 of the bookmakers at one Doncaster meeting (on a works outing), with winners at 100/1, 13/2, 8/1, and 9/4 – Frankie Durr rode the first winner, Hittite Glory, beating Music Boy (which was heavily odds-on) in the Flying Childers, and Lester won the last with one of his classy finishes.
Downsides. Listening to and believing all the crap merchants. Spending unknown amounts of money (like all gamblers I remember winners but not losers) on stupid systems. Believing complete strangers rather than using my own judgement. Thinking that there is a secret key to unlocking how a horse might run.
Which brings me to the real reason for this Blog. There is a way of making money at this game. I’m not saying I have discovered the secret, but I have learned enough to be reasonably successful. It boils down to three main factors. Select races with horses that have exposed form. Think what a trainer has to achieve to keep the owners happy. Accept losses and don’t panic.
Friday's Thoughts - A Possible Bank Booster
A little pressed for time this morning, so we’ll get straight into the selections.
14:40 Wetherby – Professor Higgins has a fine winning record, but looks to be taking on much better opposition today. The early morning 7/2 looks like a good Lay opportunity.
15:45 Wetherby – A really trappy race, but I like the look of the bottom weight Crosby Jemma at 22/1 to at least run into a place (small stakes advised). The trainer is 0 for 57 at the course, but the jockey has an OK record.
16:15 Wetherby – Pistol Basc (7/2) looks to have more on its plate then when running a respectable 2nd on this course a couple of weeks ago, so worth opposing with a Lay bet.
15:25 Uttoxeter – Not a race to get heavily involved in, but Thehonourablelady (12/1) could run into a place.
15:55 Uttoxeter – Should Chapel Flowers turn out again (unlikely) I still can’t fancy it (why do I get the feeling that this horse is going to make my life miserable). Even should it run I think the safer selection is I’m A Legend at what looks like a nice 11/2, but the one I’m most interested in is the top-weighted Jump Jet. On Hurdle form it looks well-weighted, and Twiston-Davies has taken the unusual route of putting it straight into a handicap for its Chase debut. 10/1 could be the steal of the week, and I would certainly expect it to place if it jumps.
14:40 Wetherby – Professor Higgins has a fine winning record, but looks to be taking on much better opposition today. The early morning 7/2 looks like a good Lay opportunity.
15:45 Wetherby – A really trappy race, but I like the look of the bottom weight Crosby Jemma at 22/1 to at least run into a place (small stakes advised). The trainer is 0 for 57 at the course, but the jockey has an OK record.
16:15 Wetherby – Pistol Basc (7/2) looks to have more on its plate then when running a respectable 2nd on this course a couple of weeks ago, so worth opposing with a Lay bet.
15:25 Uttoxeter – Not a race to get heavily involved in, but Thehonourablelady (12/1) could run into a place.
15:55 Uttoxeter – Should Chapel Flowers turn out again (unlikely) I still can’t fancy it (why do I get the feeling that this horse is going to make my life miserable). Even should it run I think the safer selection is I’m A Legend at what looks like a nice 11/2, but the one I’m most interested in is the top-weighted Jump Jet. On Hurdle form it looks well-weighted, and Twiston-Davies has taken the unusual route of putting it straight into a handicap for its Chase debut. 10/1 could be the steal of the week, and I would certainly expect it to place if it jumps.
Thursday - Results Roundup
In the 14:30 at Newcastle we said it looked on paper like a match between Command Marshal and Gobejolly. We also said that the trainer of Gobejolly would need to work a miracle. Well, he didn’t as Gobejolly (3/1) finished 30 lengths adrift of Command Marshal (7/4). Rather proud of that piece of analysis.
They say that pride goes before a fall, but not in this case as Go West (9/4) went West to get our Lay bet up. Slight embarrassment as our positive horse (although no bet recommended), Wenger, ran so slowly it held up the start of the next race.
The good run continued in the 15:00 at Newcastle where our Lay bet, Jballingall (100/30), failed to make the frame or even the end of the race, and our (minor) fancy, Seek The Truth (5/2), romped home by a comfortable 3 lengths.
The 15:50 at Stratford saw Nawow (7/4) ease to a win. Its early morning market rivals finished out of the money as indicated in our morning posting.
The downside of the day came in the 16:00 at Newcastle where Chapel Flowers showed its large margin success in its last race was the mark of a nice animal. An additional disappointment came in the poor showing of Toulouse Express.
Overall, a successful day, with 3 out of 4 Lay bets giving us a good return and the single Back bet coming in.
They say that pride goes before a fall, but not in this case as Go West (9/4) went West to get our Lay bet up. Slight embarrassment as our positive horse (although no bet recommended), Wenger, ran so slowly it held up the start of the next race.
The good run continued in the 15:00 at Newcastle where our Lay bet, Jballingall (100/30), failed to make the frame or even the end of the race, and our (minor) fancy, Seek The Truth (5/2), romped home by a comfortable 3 lengths.
The 15:50 at Stratford saw Nawow (7/4) ease to a win. Its early morning market rivals finished out of the money as indicated in our morning posting.
The downside of the day came in the 16:00 at Newcastle where Chapel Flowers showed its large margin success in its last race was the mark of a nice animal. An additional disappointment came in the poor showing of Toulouse Express.
Overall, a successful day, with 3 out of 4 Lay bets giving us a good return and the single Back bet coming in.
Thursday, 29 October 2009
Thursday's Horse Racing Selections - Read to the End
We’re going to start at Stratford for today’s racing.
14:50 There’s plenty here with chances on bits of form, but a lot of the runners are a bit in and out with little consistency. The RP is napping Go West (currently 3/1) and I’m really struggling to see why. Given the support in the RP it could well shorten in price and I would go for a Lay. From a positive perspective I like Wenger at 15/2 and with one more runner in the race I would be sweet on a Place or E/W bet, but a small speculative Win bet is probably the best option.
15:50 Although Nawow’s last race looks slightly disappointing on paper, it was a much harder race than this and it stands every chance on its previous run. It looks as though the trainer has found a perfect opportunity to get it back on the winning trail. Although the early-morning 13/8 is a bit on the short side it does represent good value. Its main market rivals are a horse that managed to fall twice on its only Chase start No Supper (interestingly put straight into a handicap for its first attempt at the bigger obstacles – and if it had been better supported in the market for that race I would have some concerns, but it went off at 16/1), and Kinkeel, which by my reckoning is being too highly tried even against some modest animals.
Moving on to Newcastle we have the following:
14:30 A truly horrible race. On paper it looks like a match between Command Marshal and Gobejolly. The latter is at 9/4 based almost on speculation that its new trainer is going to work a miracle (in my book that’s what’s needed on form reading. Lay Gobejolly to small stakes.
15:00 A case can be made for the front three in the betting 2/1 – 11/4 – 100/30 (11/1 Bar). I’m (slightly) surprised to see Jballingall as favourite, which seems to be based on its last run, which was a non-handicap. My slight preference is for Seek The Truth at 100/30, but I will go for the Lay on Jballingall.
16:00 They say that all good things come to those who wait, and it may be true in this race. Chapel Flowers is currently 8/15 based on its wide-margin success in its last race. While there’s no denying that was an impressive victory, the level of opposition was (let’s be kind) less than this. On pure race ‘class’ I have this race around a stone better than Chapel Flowers’ last. It is sometimes hard to get a real feel for a horse’s ability and certainly 32 lengths is a good winning margin. However, I really can’t get over the short price and have to go for the Lay on Chapel Flowers. If Chapel Flowers is as good as the market says then the cautious among you might want to try a little E/W or Place saver on Toulouse Express who in my book has been given a reasonable opportunity to get back to winning ways.
14:50 There’s plenty here with chances on bits of form, but a lot of the runners are a bit in and out with little consistency. The RP is napping Go West (currently 3/1) and I’m really struggling to see why. Given the support in the RP it could well shorten in price and I would go for a Lay. From a positive perspective I like Wenger at 15/2 and with one more runner in the race I would be sweet on a Place or E/W bet, but a small speculative Win bet is probably the best option.
15:50 Although Nawow’s last race looks slightly disappointing on paper, it was a much harder race than this and it stands every chance on its previous run. It looks as though the trainer has found a perfect opportunity to get it back on the winning trail. Although the early-morning 13/8 is a bit on the short side it does represent good value. Its main market rivals are a horse that managed to fall twice on its only Chase start No Supper (interestingly put straight into a handicap for its first attempt at the bigger obstacles – and if it had been better supported in the market for that race I would have some concerns, but it went off at 16/1), and Kinkeel, which by my reckoning is being too highly tried even against some modest animals.
Moving on to Newcastle we have the following:
14:30 A truly horrible race. On paper it looks like a match between Command Marshal and Gobejolly. The latter is at 9/4 based almost on speculation that its new trainer is going to work a miracle (in my book that’s what’s needed on form reading. Lay Gobejolly to small stakes.
15:00 A case can be made for the front three in the betting 2/1 – 11/4 – 100/30 (11/1 Bar). I’m (slightly) surprised to see Jballingall as favourite, which seems to be based on its last run, which was a non-handicap. My slight preference is for Seek The Truth at 100/30, but I will go for the Lay on Jballingall.
16:00 They say that all good things come to those who wait, and it may be true in this race. Chapel Flowers is currently 8/15 based on its wide-margin success in its last race. While there’s no denying that was an impressive victory, the level of opposition was (let’s be kind) less than this. On pure race ‘class’ I have this race around a stone better than Chapel Flowers’ last. It is sometimes hard to get a real feel for a horse’s ability and certainly 32 lengths is a good winning margin. However, I really can’t get over the short price and have to go for the Lay on Chapel Flowers. If Chapel Flowers is as good as the market says then the cautious among you might want to try a little E/W or Place saver on Toulouse Express who in my book has been given a reasonable opportunity to get back to winning ways.
Wednesday, 28 October 2009
Some Winning Bets
The main bet of the day the Lay on Thai Vango came home with the horse beaten into 2nd place at 2/1 Fav. With 7/4 available early I expect that it could have been laid at around 2.0 on Betfair, but whatever, it was a nice bet.
We also had a 3rd place selection in King's Revenge for a good E/W bet at 14/1 This was available at 20.0 in the win market just before the off and traded at under 3.0 as it challenged for the lead 2 out, before weakening. A nice run and if the handicapper isn 't too hard then it could pick up a small handicap soon.
We also highlighted Incorporation as a better proposition than Silver Steel and it duly obliged at 7/2 with Silver Steel finishing 2nd for those of you who are brave enough to do the F/Cs (not me). This was an interesting race as it highlighted the fact that current (normal) thinking is not always right, as Silver Steel had the beating of Incorporation on a direct form line.
The only downside of the day was Midnight Gold who fell foul of a Handicap newcomer and managed to finish 2nd at 11/4 (unfortunately there were only 5 runners).
Still 4 bets and 3 wins isn't bad going, and we now have something to live up to tomorrow. If you are also following my Soccer Blog then you've had 7 winning bets out of 8; which the bulls*** merchants would be shouting from the rooftops, but we know there are ups and downs in this game and it is the long term that counts.
We also had a 3rd place selection in King's Revenge for a good E/W bet at 14/1 This was available at 20.0 in the win market just before the off and traded at under 3.0 as it challenged for the lead 2 out, before weakening. A nice run and if the handicapper isn 't too hard then it could pick up a small handicap soon.
We also highlighted Incorporation as a better proposition than Silver Steel and it duly obliged at 7/2 with Silver Steel finishing 2nd for those of you who are brave enough to do the F/Cs (not me). This was an interesting race as it highlighted the fact that current (normal) thinking is not always right, as Silver Steel had the beating of Incorporation on a direct form line.
The only downside of the day was Midnight Gold who fell foul of a Handicap newcomer and managed to finish 2nd at 11/4 (unfortunately there were only 5 runners).
Still 4 bets and 3 wins isn't bad going, and we now have something to live up to tomorrow. If you are also following my Soccer Blog then you've had 7 winning bets out of 8; which the bulls*** merchants would be shouting from the rooftops, but we know there are ups and downs in this game and it is the long term that counts.
Wednesday's Racing and Selections
Just the one NH meeting today at Haydock, and it is not that inspiring; although there a couple of opportunities I want to highlight.
In the 13:50 there doesn't appear to be much between Silver Steel and Incorporation and although the former appears to be improving, the latter ran a nice race behind Silver Steel on its reappearance after being PU. Although this is not a race I would want to get heavily involved in, with the early prices showing Silver Steel at 1/1 and Incorporation at 9/2 the latter makes more appeal to minimum stakes.
In the 14:55 Midnight Gold at 11/4 is the most promising in a trappy race, but again wouldn't want to get too heavily involved.
The 15:25 is a horrible race for the main part, but to me there is a possibility of a place for King's Revenge showing early at 14/1
The final race for us is the 16:00 and this is where I intend to get most involved. Thai Vango is showing at 7/4 in the early prices and this to me is way too short. I have it as the worst handicapped horse in the race of those that I have rated. The trainer's runners always demand respect, but his 14-day record is only average, so I reckon it's worth taking on Thai Vango with a Lay bet.
In the 13:50 there doesn't appear to be much between Silver Steel and Incorporation and although the former appears to be improving, the latter ran a nice race behind Silver Steel on its reappearance after being PU. Although this is not a race I would want to get heavily involved in, with the early prices showing Silver Steel at 1/1 and Incorporation at 9/2 the latter makes more appeal to minimum stakes.
In the 14:55 Midnight Gold at 11/4 is the most promising in a trappy race, but again wouldn't want to get too heavily involved.
The 15:25 is a horrible race for the main part, but to me there is a possibility of a place for King's Revenge showing early at 14/1
The final race for us is the 16:00 and this is where I intend to get most involved. Thai Vango is showing at 7/4 in the early prices and this to me is way too short. I have it as the worst handicapped horse in the race of those that I have rated. The trainer's runners always demand respect, but his 14-day record is only average, so I reckon it's worth taking on Thai Vango with a Lay bet.
Tuesday, 27 October 2009
Introduction
Just what the world needs! Another idiot talking about how to make money from betting on horses. But you never know perhaps unlike people who try to charge you a fortune for stating the obvious, you might get the obvious (and not so obvious) for free.
Just to give you a flavour of what I will be covering in this Blog, I have some distinct views on how horse race handicapping is carried out, and believe that current thinking is fatally flawed. Fatal, that is, for the poor souls who study form based on false information and received knowledge.
I have my own way of handicapping races, and while I’m not going to publish this in its entirety, I will be providing some information, and pointing people away from the (mis)information that pervades the industry.
I always believe that ideas should be backed up by proof, and I will attempt to highlight betting opportunities, but please remember that although some vendors of rubbish will try and talk about ‘investment’, we are talking about gambling, and this is a risk-based business.
Although I tend to use Betfair exclusively, this is for convenience rather than the fact that I believe their claims on who much richer you can become by getting better prices. There is very little price differential at the lower-price end of the market (especially if you are paying commission at 5%) between Betfair and the bookmakers.
Where Betfair scores is on the higher-price selections. Typically, 20/1 at the bookmakers will translate to 30.0 or even40.0 on the Exchanges.
Which is fine if you are Backing (and can pick 20/1 winners) but not so good if you are looking to Lay. However, it should be noted that as Betfair is a (reasonably) free market, the prices more accurately represent a horse’s chance.
As Flat racing is coming to an end I will be concentrating in the main on NH with some AW thrown in. I also concentrate purely on Handicaps.
Just to give you a flavour of what I will be covering in this Blog, I have some distinct views on how horse race handicapping is carried out, and believe that current thinking is fatally flawed. Fatal, that is, for the poor souls who study form based on false information and received knowledge.
I have my own way of handicapping races, and while I’m not going to publish this in its entirety, I will be providing some information, and pointing people away from the (mis)information that pervades the industry.
I always believe that ideas should be backed up by proof, and I will attempt to highlight betting opportunities, but please remember that although some vendors of rubbish will try and talk about ‘investment’, we are talking about gambling, and this is a risk-based business.
Although I tend to use Betfair exclusively, this is for convenience rather than the fact that I believe their claims on who much richer you can become by getting better prices. There is very little price differential at the lower-price end of the market (especially if you are paying commission at 5%) between Betfair and the bookmakers.
Where Betfair scores is on the higher-price selections. Typically, 20/1 at the bookmakers will translate to 30.0 or even40.0 on the Exchanges.
Which is fine if you are Backing (and can pick 20/1 winners) but not so good if you are looking to Lay. However, it should be noted that as Betfair is a (reasonably) free market, the prices more accurately represent a horse’s chance.
As Flat racing is coming to an end I will be concentrating in the main on NH with some AW thrown in. I also concentrate purely on Handicaps.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)