Bit pushed for time, so just quick selections today.
15:40 Fontwell looks like a match between One Of The Boys and Croon - preference is just for the latter based on price and fitness.
12:50 Hexham Stoneriggs Merc looks well handicapped if the return to the smaller obstacles doesn't inconvenience.
15:50 Hexham Bright Sparky is a ridiculous early price of 4/1 (should be half that). Well worth a Back bet.
Friday, 6 November 2009
Thursday, 5 November 2009
More Profits for Thursday
Wasntme obliged us by losing and Rathcor did the same by winning at 3/1 (it was 7/1 early on), which made Towcester a very good meeting for us.
At Lingfield Spitfire went the way of all good E/W or Place bets by finishing 4th at 11/2, but River Kirov got us our money back by finishing 2nd to pay out on our Lay bet.
All-in-all a most satisfactory day.
Our Something New selections were a mixed bag, with Place at 5/2, Win 1/1, a NR and a 7/2 loser. Although this is new to the posting we have been looking at this for some time and the jury's still out - what has become clear is that it doesn't seem to be a high risk selection list with most of them thereabouts.
Tomorrow's selections may be slightly later tomorrow due to personal commitments.
At Lingfield Spitfire went the way of all good E/W or Place bets by finishing 4th at 11/2, but River Kirov got us our money back by finishing 2nd to pay out on our Lay bet.
All-in-all a most satisfactory day.
Our Something New selections were a mixed bag, with Place at 5/2, Win 1/1, a NR and a 7/2 loser. Although this is new to the posting we have been looking at this for some time and the jury's still out - what has become clear is that it doesn't seem to be a high risk selection list with most of them thereabouts.
Tomorrow's selections may be slightly later tomorrow due to personal commitments.
Wet Thursday
As Haydock just scraped through an inspection there will be no bets for me there today, instead we will be concentrating on Towcester and Lingfield (let's hope I've got the meetings right today.
In the 13:30 Towcester we're going for a Lay bet on Wasntme currently at 3/1 The horse seems to prefer give in the ground and today might not be soft enough for it. It's also badly treated by our handicap ratings.
In the 14:40 we like the look of Rathcor at an enticing 7/1 for an E/W or Place bet.
In the 14:20 Lingfield 6/1 shot Spitfire looks well-treated and might be ready for a win, an E/W or Place bet is the cautious approach.
River Kirov looks like a good Lay opportunity in the 14:55 and 7/2 looks like a feasible price.
Something New
An average start to yesterday's selections with 1 winner and 2 U/P. Today's selections are:
13:20 Haydock - Riptide
13:45 Lingfield - Ongoodform
15:05 Haydock - Amazing King
15:30 Lingfield - Master Lightfoot
Again caution advised as these are something new and special caution because of the Haydock going.
In the 13:30 Towcester we're going for a Lay bet on Wasntme currently at 3/1 The horse seems to prefer give in the ground and today might not be soft enough for it. It's also badly treated by our handicap ratings.
In the 14:40 we like the look of Rathcor at an enticing 7/1 for an E/W or Place bet.
In the 14:20 Lingfield 6/1 shot Spitfire looks well-treated and might be ready for a win, an E/W or Place bet is the cautious approach.
River Kirov looks like a good Lay opportunity in the 14:55 and 7/2 looks like a feasible price.
Something New
An average start to yesterday's selections with 1 winner and 2 U/P. Today's selections are:
13:20 Haydock - Riptide
13:45 Lingfield - Ongoodform
15:05 Haydock - Amazing King
15:30 Lingfield - Master Lightfoot
Again caution advised as these are something new and special caution because of the Haydock going.
Wednesday, 4 November 2009
Whoops Wednesday
A problem with my 'Ws' on yesterday's posting. For some reason I decided that Warwick was Worcester. Hope that it didn't put you off Red Jester that won well at 3/1
Moon Melody at 9/1 had hardly started before getting rid of the jockey - the peril of making horses jump (or not) over obstacles.
Amble Forge failed to put it in where it matters at Chepstow, beaten into 2nd place at 6/1
Things didn't get any better at Kempton. In the 15:50 our Lay bet Muftarres got well beaten. Unfortunately, it started at 10/ and not the 4/1 it was forecast, so No Bet. Our two selections finished nowhere and 4th, so a completely blank race.
Our one hope for redemption was in the 19:20, where one of our speciality bigger-priced Back bets was running, and to compound the day it managed to finish 4th at 25/1
Tomorrow is another day.
Moon Melody at 9/1 had hardly started before getting rid of the jockey - the peril of making horses jump (or not) over obstacles.
Amble Forge failed to put it in where it matters at Chepstow, beaten into 2nd place at 6/1
Things didn't get any better at Kempton. In the 15:50 our Lay bet Muftarres got well beaten. Unfortunately, it started at 10/ and not the 4/1 it was forecast, so No Bet. Our two selections finished nowhere and 4th, so a completely blank race.
Our one hope for redemption was in the 19:20, where one of our speciality bigger-priced Back bets was running, and to compound the day it managed to finish 4th at 25/1
Tomorrow is another day.
Tuesday, 3 November 2009
Wednesday's Selections
The 15:50 Chepstow looks wide open, but Amble Forge (RP forecast 5/1) looks worth a small interest. Aheadofhistime looks the main danger (also 5/1 in the forecast).
In the 13:20 Worcester, Red Jester looks like getting reward for some good placed efforts. Normally we would be wary of a horse that places so many times, but it does have a respectable win record over the bigger fences, and is worth a chance in this poor race.
The 15:40 should go to Moon Melody with little trouble. It doesn't win as often as it should (hardly ever) but this is a perfect opportunity.
The 17:50 Kempton could lie between Ordoney (RP forecast 5/1) and Aurorian (8/1 forecast). This leaves the forecast favourite Muftarres (4/1) as a good Lay bet, with an equal stake Back bet on Ordoney and an E/W or Place Back bet on Aurorian.
The 19:20 provides us with one of our outsider bets. The Mumbo could overcome a poor draw and put these to the sword. We reckon it has an outstanding chance to at least run into a place.
Something New
The following selections are all to Win or E/W if you like to play it safer. This is something new we are trying so treat with caution.
13:00 Chepstow - My Friend Sandy
13:30 Chepstow - L'eau Du Nil
14:30 Warwick - Straw Bear
In the 13:20 Worcester, Red Jester looks like getting reward for some good placed efforts. Normally we would be wary of a horse that places so many times, but it does have a respectable win record over the bigger fences, and is worth a chance in this poor race.
The 15:40 should go to Moon Melody with little trouble. It doesn't win as often as it should (hardly ever) but this is a perfect opportunity.
The 17:50 Kempton could lie between Ordoney (RP forecast 5/1) and Aurorian (8/1 forecast). This leaves the forecast favourite Muftarres (4/1) as a good Lay bet, with an equal stake Back bet on Ordoney and an E/W or Place Back bet on Aurorian.
The 19:20 provides us with one of our outsider bets. The Mumbo could overcome a poor draw and put these to the sword. We reckon it has an outstanding chance to at least run into a place.
Something New
The following selections are all to Win or E/W if you like to play it safer. This is something new we are trying so treat with caution.
13:00 Chepstow - My Friend Sandy
13:30 Chepstow - L'eau Du Nil
14:30 Warwick - Straw Bear
Yawn, Yawn - Tuesday's Results
Oh Crick made no show in Exeter's feature race so our Lay would have been safe, but at 11/2 it was way out of my comfort zone, so I class it as a No Bet.
A similar case in the 14:20 Kempton where our Lay bet finished 2nd and our Back bet finished 3rd, so the only loss was a bit of commission.
Pretty much the same story in the 14:50 where our Back bet ran 2nd to last, but our Lay was a non-runner, so classed as a No Bet.
We got our Lay bet up in the 15:50 but in unsatisfactory circumstances. Mafeking (7/2) was PU after 1F, let's hope there's nothing too amiss. As an aside, anyone who Lays horses over jumps and wants them to fall when approaching the last in a clear lead should be taken out and shot.
Although we can hope for a bit more action tomorrow we never try to force a bet when there isn't one. This is the one advantage we have over the bookmakers and the inveterate gamblers, we can pick and choose.
A similar case in the 14:20 Kempton where our Lay bet finished 2nd and our Back bet finished 3rd, so the only loss was a bit of commission.
Pretty much the same story in the 14:50 where our Back bet ran 2nd to last, but our Lay was a non-runner, so classed as a No Bet.
We got our Lay bet up in the 15:50 but in unsatisfactory circumstances. Mafeking (7/2) was PU after 1F, let's hope there's nothing too amiss. As an aside, anyone who Lays horses over jumps and wants them to fall when approaching the last in a clear lead should be taken out and shot.
Although we can hope for a bit more action tomorrow we never try to force a bet when there isn't one. This is the one advantage we have over the bookmakers and the inveterate gamblers, we can pick and choose.
Rage Against the Machine
This is the MACHINE – the scam artists.
Only 250 copies will be sold. This is a one-time opportunity. Buy yourself a new house and fancy cars.
Yes! It's another system. Let's see how stupid these people think we are.
Only 250 copies at the special price of £47 – which means the vendor will make £11,750 – surely this is a drop in the ocean to what the system is making him?
According to the blurb this made nearly £200,000 in one year, so why bother trying to rake in less than 1% of that.
Affiliates can earn 60% - thus reducing the vendors profits to a mere £4,700 – and why would you want to be an affiliate if there are only 250 copies available?
I like this one: “Best winning run is 76 selections in a row and more” - well, is it 76 selections or is it 77 or 78; which is it?
Another particular favourite: “When using £100 stakes – 21 points profit per month” - actually, you muppet, it doesn't matter what stakes you are using if you make 21 points you make 21 points (although I would doubt it).
Apparently, best winning runs are 79, 54 and 50 in a row (well that answers my previous question).
Profits of £151,845 with £100 stakes – over what period? Anyway, I thought I could make nearly £200,000 in a year, why not just stick with that figure?
The 'testimonials' are fun too: “I have been testing this system for only 18 days with low stakes and I have already profited to the tune of £3,280. This is equivalent to just over 3 months pay in my job as a postman” - no wonder they're all on strike, they are being paid less than minimum wage. Let's look at the maths. This postman has made £3,280 in 18 days, which is £182 a day, or £5,642 a month. The system will give you a profit of 21 points per month, which means our postman friend has been staking at over £250 per bet. These are small stakes?? I'm beginning to worry about our postman – he earns £1,000 a month yet is prepared to risk a quarter of that on each bet. The worrying thing is that no-one has talked about liability. With long winning runs (of around 70, depending on which lie I'm telling) the chances are that the odds are not going to be under 4/1, which means Mr. Postman is risking a couple of month's pay on each bet.
Apparently, if we 'procastinate' we will see the 'SOLD OUT' sign up. These people who run the MACHINE have so little regard for our intelligence that they can't even be bothered to proof read the crap they are pushing out. It's 'procrastinate'.
Does this make me mad? No! It makes me furious. These pieces of rubbish are produced at the rate of about one a fortnight, and they are complete fabrications. I cannot understand why reputable companies such as PayPal support them by allowing payments to be made via their facility. I also don't understand why Government offices are not getting involved in closing them down. There are laws on false advertising in this country, and its about time they were used to stop this nonsense once and for all. In the meantime I suggest you do what I do and every time you get one of these offers in the mail box have a laugh at finding the inconsistencies.
Only 250 copies will be sold. This is a one-time opportunity. Buy yourself a new house and fancy cars.
Yes! It's another system. Let's see how stupid these people think we are.
Only 250 copies at the special price of £47 – which means the vendor will make £11,750 – surely this is a drop in the ocean to what the system is making him?
According to the blurb this made nearly £200,000 in one year, so why bother trying to rake in less than 1% of that.
Affiliates can earn 60% - thus reducing the vendors profits to a mere £4,700 – and why would you want to be an affiliate if there are only 250 copies available?
I like this one: “Best winning run is 76 selections in a row and more” - well, is it 76 selections or is it 77 or 78; which is it?
Another particular favourite: “When using £100 stakes – 21 points profit per month” - actually, you muppet, it doesn't matter what stakes you are using if you make 21 points you make 21 points (although I would doubt it).
Apparently, best winning runs are 79, 54 and 50 in a row (well that answers my previous question).
Profits of £151,845 with £100 stakes – over what period? Anyway, I thought I could make nearly £200,000 in a year, why not just stick with that figure?
The 'testimonials' are fun too: “I have been testing this system for only 18 days with low stakes and I have already profited to the tune of £3,280. This is equivalent to just over 3 months pay in my job as a postman” - no wonder they're all on strike, they are being paid less than minimum wage. Let's look at the maths. This postman has made £3,280 in 18 days, which is £182 a day, or £5,642 a month. The system will give you a profit of 21 points per month, which means our postman friend has been staking at over £250 per bet. These are small stakes?? I'm beginning to worry about our postman – he earns £1,000 a month yet is prepared to risk a quarter of that on each bet. The worrying thing is that no-one has talked about liability. With long winning runs (of around 70, depending on which lie I'm telling) the chances are that the odds are not going to be under 4/1, which means Mr. Postman is risking a couple of month's pay on each bet.
Apparently, if we 'procastinate' we will see the 'SOLD OUT' sign up. These people who run the MACHINE have so little regard for our intelligence that they can't even be bothered to proof read the crap they are pushing out. It's 'procrastinate'.
Does this make me mad? No! It makes me furious. These pieces of rubbish are produced at the rate of about one a fortnight, and they are complete fabrications. I cannot understand why reputable companies such as PayPal support them by allowing payments to be made via their facility. I also don't understand why Government offices are not getting involved in closing them down. There are laws on false advertising in this country, and its about time they were used to stop this nonsense once and for all. In the meantime I suggest you do what I do and every time you get one of these offers in the mail box have a laugh at finding the inconsistencies.
Haldon Gold Cup Day
I know they've changed the title, but to me it will always be the Haldon Gold Cup, one of the best races at Exeter (or Devon & Exeter as it used to be known), the 15:00 Exeter.
It's an awkward race to analyse as it attracts both handicappers and better-class horses. Oh Crick is currently showing at 4/1 and just worth a Lay at this price (at the upper end of my Lay price limit).
For the first time we are going to look at the AW racing at Kempton. In the 14:20 the RP has Femme De Fer as 3/1 Fav and Ask Jenny at 4/1 2nd Fav. We're going to go for a dual bet here; a Back bet on the former with an equal stake Lay on the latter.
I hate agreeing with the RP but in the 14:50 I think they've got it spot on. Chosen Son looks to have a good chance; certainly a better chance than the 9/2 forecast Fav Malapropism. Again we'd go for a Lay on Malapropism matched by an equal stake Back on Chosen Son.
Fortunately, I completely disagree with the RP in the 15:50 as they say that Mafeking has to be respected. Well, not by us it doesn't. At 11/4 this is a good Lay bet.
It's an awkward race to analyse as it attracts both handicappers and better-class horses. Oh Crick is currently showing at 4/1 and just worth a Lay at this price (at the upper end of my Lay price limit).
For the first time we are going to look at the AW racing at Kempton. In the 14:20 the RP has Femme De Fer as 3/1 Fav and Ask Jenny at 4/1 2nd Fav. We're going to go for a dual bet here; a Back bet on the former with an equal stake Lay on the latter.
I hate agreeing with the RP but in the 14:50 I think they've got it spot on. Chosen Son looks to have a good chance; certainly a better chance than the 9/2 forecast Fav Malapropism. Again we'd go for a Lay on Malapropism matched by an equal stake Back on Chosen Son.
Fortunately, I completely disagree with the RP in the 15:50 as they say that Mafeking has to be respected. Well, not by us it doesn't. At 11/4 this is a good Lay bet.
Monday, 2 November 2009
Poor Racing - Good Result
After a dreadful start to the day with Chamacco looking less than genuine (that's polite speak for behaving like a dog), and American World defying my analysis and winning at 8/1 (far too big a price to lay). My two-horse dutch turned into a loser and a NR, just to compound my miserable performance. Fortunately, Laconicos held on in an exciting finish to rescue us at a slightly disappointing price of 6/1 (it's always nice to complain about a 6/1 winner). So a nice profit for the day.
Let's hope for better racing tomorrow, and some equally good winners.
Let's hope for better racing tomorrow, and some equally good winners.
Sunday, 1 November 2009
Poor Monday Racing
Well, the powers that be have served us up with some real crap today.
In the 14:20 Plumpton only Chammaco looks to have any sort of chance, and actually it looks to have quite a good chance, so time for a Back bet.
The 15:30 Plumpton is a tricky handicap preference is for Bobby Donald and Royal Kicks over the RP favourite American World. The latter is a little long for a Lay, so there is no recommended bet, but a Dutch Back on the first two is a possibility for those that like a bet.
In the 16:00 Plumpton I find it hard to get enthusiastic about the chances of any at the front of the market, but Laconicos at 10/1 in the RP forecast makes plenty of appeal for an E/W or Place bet.
In the 14:20 Plumpton only Chammaco looks to have any sort of chance, and actually it looks to have quite a good chance, so time for a Back bet.
The 15:30 Plumpton is a tricky handicap preference is for Bobby Donald and Royal Kicks over the RP favourite American World. The latter is a little long for a Lay, so there is no recommended bet, but a Dutch Back on the first two is a possibility for those that like a bet.
In the 16:00 Plumpton I find it hard to get enthusiastic about the chances of any at the front of the market, but Laconicos at 10/1 in the RP forecast makes plenty of appeal for an E/W or Place bet.
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